Undoubtedly, Bachmann wants to lay claim to a broad mandate in order to position herself as a serious choice for the nomination. But does she really have a chance to become the GOP's dark horse and beat the big boys to the finish line?
History weighs against success. Americans have only elected one president who was a sitting member of the House of Representatives, James Garfield -- and that was over 130 years ago. Plenty of House members have tried to win the nomination, but none has succeeded. Rep. Ron Paul will make his second run at the nomination this year, while Colorado's Tom Tancredo followed him into also-ran status in 2008. Dennis Kucinich tried it in 2004 and 2008 for the Democrats, although few took him seriously.
Eric Ostermeier at Smart Politics did a little research on this topic and discovered that 33 House members have made presidential nomination bids since primaries began to replace state caucuses in 1912. Twenty-one of these campaigns took place since 1972. Not a single one succeeded, although Champ Clark, D-Missouri, led on the first ballot in the 1912 convention over Woodrow Wilson before fading.
That doesn't preclude a victory by Bachmann. Anything is impossible until someone does it. The problem for House candidates is that they lack solid constituencies. Where senators and governors win statewide elections and can lay claim to fairly broad constituencies, any House member represents only around 800,000 people at most.
As primary voters and caucus participants evaluate electability, having a statewide constituency makes a difference. In Bachmann's case, that's a tough problem, as a Survey USA poll shows her trailing Barack Obama in Minnesota by 16 points, while fellow Minnesotan Tim Pawlenty, a former two-term governor, battles Obama to a draw at 46% each among registered voters.
